The Next Indian Goverennmt Who Will Win The Polls And What It Means for Your Investments 2022 At a time when a fragmented opposition has been unable to put up a fight against the Modi-led government
What do the four major parties in India stand for?
Himanshu is an associate director at Clarion Advisors, a New Delhi-based investment firm. You can write to him at himanshu@clarionadvisors.
What are the key differences between each party’s policies?
While it is clear that the upcoming elections are about the BJP’s popularity, it is unclear which party will win a majority in both Houses.
Even though the opposition parties claim to be fighting against Modi, the reality is that most of the opposition parties are but a shadow of themselves, with an almost total lack of policy platforms. Against this background, it is difficult to form a fair analysis of the parties’ policies and principles on critical issues, except for limited electioneering. By no means do I expect these parties to present visionary, but acceptable policies.
Even though each of them has some credible leaders (for example, Kamal Nath), most of them are largely unknown or simply ordinary leaders, at the helm of poor organizations.
Why is this election important for investments?
The forthcoming general election in India this year has become a crucial moment in the country’s political history. It is almost certain that the Modi-led government will retain its parliamentary majority. This is in spite of some gory political developments in the country last year. Some opposition parties, including the Congress party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, have joined hands. The Communists have also entered the fray and are contesting in many seats.
As per the Election Commission, at least 935 candidates will be contesting for 543 seats in the Lok Sabha (lower house) of India’s Parliament. This will be a huge change from the last Lok Sabha polls in 2014 when the BJP won 282 out of 543 seats.
Who will win the poll and what does it mean for your investments?
By Aditya Pratap India, a democracy with a reasonably-sized electorate is governed by the single largest party in the lower house of its Parliament. Since the advent of a system of government called the election of members of the Legislative Assembly or the Parliament, which was introduced in India in 1950, the elections of national and state assemblies have only seen single-party governance.
The elections of 1952 to 1951 of the Central Legislative Assembly was the first in which the governing party or the single largest party was not the Indian National Congress, which won the vast majority of seats.
The all-time lowest electoral turnout was recorded during the last election in 2014, which was held to elect the Lok Sabha.
If a fragmented opposition is unable to put up a fight against the Modi-led government, it would be difficult to say that it is going to take its chances in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
There could also be some sort of a split in the opposition, leaving the Congress party as the only one capable of taking on the BJP. However, even if the opposition comes together, it still has a lot to do in terms of electing a strong leader.
The process of electing a leader must be completed within the next three years, and it needs to be someone who not only enjoys public support but also has the support of the parties as well as other regional parties.